Flip Flopping in America

I noticed a post by an old college friend on Facebook who works for the Wisconsin Democratic Party with a new political ad campaign against Scott Walker, a Republican running for Governor of Wisconsin. While I know little about Wisconsin politics, what I find interesting, is their use of the "flip flop" argument against Mr. Walker (with a twist of Transformers).

The irony of course is that this was the same argument used to defeat John Kerry in 2004, an argument that largely incensed Democrats. The fundamental roots are that the person's claim changed ("we should institute a new immigration policy," "we shouldn't institute a new immigration policy"), which generally a result of the data or warrant being used by the person in question changing. In cases where the data and warrant do not change, "flip flop" cases might carry more weight, where someone changes their claim while looking at the same data.

However, many cases, including John Kerry result where data and/or facts have changed, resulting in a different claim. This begs the question, for what are officials elected? Are they elected to deliver specific votes on specific issues, promised through the bond of a vote? Or rather, should officials be elected based on trust in their judgment to act in the interest of the greater good when presented with data?

The reason that campaigns are run based on promises of future tactical action is likely because the public demands it. A more rationale way to evaluate candidates is to analyze how they acted on specific types of available data, as it is more representative of how they will act in the future. It will be interesting to see how the discourse comes into fruition for this Fall's elections, as the arguments should center around how one candidate performed during a recession (where results will not be measured in isolation of greater economic challenges) versus another which will measure results in isolation.

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Economists More Optimistic Than Public

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703722804575368871006939294.htm...

I’m not sure it’s fair to survey 55 (or 57) economists and conclude any sort of scientific results. For one, the sample size is tiny. Most importantly though, there is no discussion of the backgrounds for the “economists” in question, nor their positions, which may influence how they respond to a survey. The normative questions being asked that elicit responses saying the economy is “doing better, but not yet doing well” underscore exactly why public perception is so detached from that of “expert” opinion.

The result of this misinformation is the majority of the public licking their finger and putting it in the air to see which way the wind is blowing. If the article’s intention was to inform as to why a gap exists between public and expert opinion, then it should instead present the information and analysis driving the surveyed economists’ opinions. A surprisingly shallow article from the WSJ on an important, relevant topic.

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